Within this changed political demography, there are no comparable red states in which Republicans accumulate nearly as many wasted votes. Not a single state in gave Trump even a margin of one million votes, and Trump lost the popular vote to Clinton by nearly three million votes Lichtman, , pp.
When we first developed the Keys in , the popular and Electoral College votes had not diverged since The only other time since that the two votes had diverged was in the disputed election of , when violence, fraud, and corruption in the waning days of southern Reconstruction made it impossible to fairly and accurately determine the outcome in Florida, Louisiana, and South Carolina. Now the two votes have differed twice in just 16 years, in and In any close election, Democrats will win the popular vote, but not necessarily the Electoral College.
At the end of , it appeared that with four Keys turned against him, Trump was still two Keys short of a predicted defeat. Mandate Key 1: Republicans lost a net of 41 U. House seats in the midterm elections of , losing control of the chamber and this Key.
The assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani lacked a coherent follow-up strategy and was quickly forgotten. Incumbent Charisma Key Trump is a consummate showman who commands media attention but appeals only to a narrow slice of the electorate rather than achieving broad appeal like Ronald Reagan.
By the time of this writing in August , three additional Keys have turned against Trump, for a total of seven negative Keys, one more than is needed to predict his defeat. NBER, There have since been two consecutive negative quarters of real growth.
Social Unrest Key 8: Social unrest, including episodes of violence, has been sustained for several months. This disorder has raised concerns that remain unresolved and have little prospect of resolution prior to the election, given the resistance to reform on the part of Trump and congressional Republicans.
The Trump administration has sought to spin the treaty between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain as a historic achievement. But the treaty has met with a collective yawn in the United States, not approaching the attention that followed the Camp David Accords during the Jimmy Carter administration.
Similarly, the controversy over replacing the late justice of the Supreme Court Ruth Bader Ginsburg does not change any Keys and, therefore, has no impact on my prediction. Unlike polls and poll compilations, the Keys indicate precisely what factors will decide who will be the next president of the United States.
However, on a note of caution, there are sadly two unpredictable factors that could skew election results beyond the scope of the Keys. One is the limitation of voting by mail, an essential alternative in the midst of the pandemic.
The other is a reprise of Russian intervention, which according to intelligence reports is taking place again in Polantz, On a positive note, the Keys have implications for governing the country and conducting presidential campaigns.
The Keys show that what counts in presidential elections is governing, as measured by the consequential events of a presidential term, not packaging, image making, or campaigning. If candidates understood how elections really worked they would avoid the kind of empty, scripted, and consultant-driven campaigns that the American people have too often endured.
Instead, they would strive to conduct substantive contests for the presidency and establish the foundations for governing the country during the next four years, thereby improving the prospects for themselves or their party to win another term.
Candidates should explain their vision for the next four years, specify the intended bills and executive orders of their first hundred days, and indicate the kinds of persons they would elevate to the Cabinet, the White House, and the Supreme Court.
Armstrong, J. Index methods for forecasting: An application to the American presidential elections. Benjamin, M. Graefe, A. Very few candidates have improve the results obtained through using Hem- demonstrated truly inspirational qualities. In each case their charisma was widely tion to the next.
However, keys do have trigger effects recognized in press commentary at the time. No sitting on other keys. It may seem counterintuitive, for exam- president who was charismatic or a national hero has ple, that during the Great Depression, the economy ever been challenged within his own party, faced a accounted for the fall of only two keys against Herbert significant third-party campaign or a charismatic Hoover's Republicans in However, the eco- opponent, or been defeated for reelection.
Subsets of the keys Charisma Key 13, as without the Depression, Franklin Roosevelt would most likely have followed his plan to Some subsets of the thirteen keys also correctly run for president in , not The Vietnam War predict the outcome of all elections since Why not, in only directly counted for one discrepant Key then, use a smaller set of keys?
First, the full set of thirteen against the incumbent Democrats, but also triggered keys provides the greatest separation between incumbent the loss of Mandate Key 1, Party Contest Key 2, wins and losses over the entire sample of elections. For example, at the time we nation of a subset of the Keys that accounts for the out- originally developed the system in , the combination comes of all presidential elections since However, this four-key system would have However, this model lacks theoretical justification, miscalled President Clinton's reelection in the depends heavily on the calls on single keys, and, like party in power lost Keys 4 and 7 , which the thirteen- key the four-key model discussed above, may not be stable system correctly predicted.
Third, the greater stability and in subsequent elections. Finally, methods were used to convert scores from the keys for all of the thirteen keys have strong theoretical justification the full period from to to numerical predic- for their inclusion. This criterion is consistent with the tions of the two party presidential vote. The regression dual objective of the Keys — to both predict and explain yielded the following result: the outcomes of American presidential elections.
Forecasting Eight were called against the party The equation correctly predicts the popular vote True: 5 keys; false: 8 keys. Roosevelt or of the Republicans, with none shifting to the challenging John F. Barack Obama could emerge as a charismatic Hero Key 13 in line for the incumbents. House unlikely, that the nomination of a breakthrough candi- seats in the midterm elections to topple Mandate date such as a woman Hillary Clinton or an African- Key 1.
Bush, turning Contest firmly predict a Democratic victory in It is most Key 2 against them. Assuming that the incum- Bush administration is slightly below the record bent Republicans retain five keys, their percentage of achieved during the last two presidential terms, so the two-party presidential vote is an estimated Governing and campaigning failed to achieve the second-term policy revolution needed to secure Policy Change Key 7.
Effective governing keeps incumbent parties in the political keys. In , the incumbent Republicans office and renders conventional campaigning by chal- secured all four of the political keys. For , the lengers futile. This relationship between governing and Republicans lose three of the political keys. Setbacks in politics has held true across nearly years of American foreign policy account for the shift of another key.
If the voters are content with the party in power, it gains four more years in the White House; if not, the challenging party prevails. Thus, the model implies that the choice of a president does not turn on debates, advertising, speeches, endorsements, rallies, platforms, promises, or campaign tactics. Rather, presidential elections are primarily referenda on the performance of the party holding the White House. Method Lichtman first developed the Keys system in , in collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
The methodology used in the development of the Keys is described in Keilis-Borok and Lichtman As shown in the table below, each of the thirteen keys is stated as a threshold condition that always favors the re-election of the party holding the White House. Each key can then be assessed as true or false prior to an upcoming election. The model then uses a simple decision rule to predict the election winner: When five or fewer keys are false, the incumbent party wins; when any six or more are false, the challenging party wins.
Forecast accuracy The Keys model is often cited as having a perfect record in correctly predicting each U. This is not correct. Read this book not only for a surprising look at the electoral process, but also for tips on calling the election in Lichtman applies his trademark 13 keys to predicting the outcome of presidential elections to every election since and shows readers the current state of the race, dispelling much of the mystery behind electoral politics. An indispensable resource.
0コメント